ROC Curve

BackgroundReceiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are useful tools to evaluate classifiers in biomedical and bioinformatics applications. However, conclusions are often reached through inconsistent use or insufficient statistical analysis. To support researchers in their ROC curves analysis we developed pROC, a package for R and S+ that contains a set of tools displaying, analyzing, smoothing and comparing ROC curves in a user-friendly, object-oriented and flexible interface.ResultsWith data previously imported into the R or S+ environment, the pROC package builds ROC curves and includes functions for computing confidence intervals, statistical tests for comparing total or partial area under the curve or the operating points of different classifiers, and methods for smoothing ROC curves. Intermediary and final results are visualised in user-friendly interfaces. A case study based on published clinical and biomarker data shows how to perform a typical ROC analysis with pROC.ConclusionspROC is a package for R and S+ specifically dedicated to ROC analysis. It proposes multiple statistical tests to compare ROC curves, and in particular partial areas under the curve, allowing proper ROC interpretation. pROC is available in two versions: in the R programming language or with a graphical user interface in the S+ statistical software. It is accessible at http://expasy.org/tools/pROC/ under the GNU General Public License. It is also distributed through the CRAN and CSAN public repositories, facilitating its installation.

Binary classifiers are routinely evaluated with performance measures such as sensitivity and specificity, and performance is frequently illustrated with Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) plots. Alternative measures such as positive predictive value (PPV) and the associated Precision/Recall (PRC) plots are used less frequently. Many bioinformatics studies develop and evaluate classifiers that are to be applied to strongly imbalanced datasets in which the number of negatives outweighs the number of positives significantly. While ROC plots are visually appealing and provide an overview of a classifier's performance across a wide range of specificities, one can ask whether ROC plots could be misleading when applied in imbalanced classification scenarios. We show here that the visual interpretability of ROC plots in the context of imbalanced datasets can be deceptive with respect to conclusions about the reliability of classification performance, owing to an intuitive but wrong interpretation of specificity. PRC plots, on the other hand, can provide the viewer with an accurate prediction of future classification performance due to the fact that they evaluate the fraction of true positives among positive predictions. Our findings have potential implications for the interpretation of a large number of studies that use ROC plots on imbalanced datasets.

BackgroundROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve analysis is well established for assessing how well a marker is capable of discriminating between individuals who experience disease onset and individuals who do not. The classical (standard) approach of ROC curve analysis considers event (disease) status and marker value for an individual as fixed over time, however in practice, both the disease status and marker value change over time. Individuals who are disease-free earlier may develop the disease later due to longer study follow-up, and also their marker value may change from baseline during follow-up. Thus, an ROC curve as a function of time is more appropriate. However, many researchers still use the standard ROC curve approach to determine the marker capability ignoring the time dependency of the disease status or the marker.MethodsWe comprehensively review currently proposed methodologies of time-dependent ROC curves which use single or longitudinal marker measurements, aiming to provide clarity in each methodology, identify software tools to carry out such analysis in practice and illustrate several applications of the methodology. We have also extended some methods to incorporate a longitudinal marker and illustrated the methodologies using a sequential dataset from the Mayo Clinic trial in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver.ResultsFrom our methodological review, we have identified 18 estimation methods of time-dependent ROC curve analyses for censored event times and three other methods can only deal with non-censored event times. Despite the considerable numbers of estimation methods, applications of the methodology in clinical studies are still lacking.ConclusionsThe value of time-dependent ROC curve methods has been re-established. We have illustrated the methods in practice using currently available software and made some recommendations for future research.

BackgroundChest X-rays (CXR) are essential for diagnosing a variety of conditions, but when used on new populations, model generalizability issues limit their efficacy. Generative AI, particularly denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs), offers a promising approach to generating synthetic images, enhancing dataset diversity. This study investigates the impact of synthetic data supplementation on the performance and generalizability of medical imaging research.MethodsThe study employed DDPMs to create synthetic CXRs conditioned on demographic and pathological characteristics from the CheXpert dataset. These synthetic images were used to supplement training datasets for pathology classifiers, with the aim of improving their performance. The evaluation involved three datasets (CheXpert, MIMIC-CXR, and Emory Chest X-ray) and various experiments, including supplementing real data with synthetic data, training with purely synthetic data, and mixing synthetic data with external datasets. Performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC).FindingsAdding synthetic data to real datasets resulted in a notable increase in AUROC values (up to 0.02 in internal and external test sets with 1000% supplementation, p-value InterpretationSynthetic data supplementation significantly improves the performance and generalizability of pathology classifiers in medical imaging.FundingDr. Gichoya is a 2022 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Harold Amos Medical Faculty Development Program and declares support from RSNA Health Disparities grant (#EIHD2204), Lacuna Fund (#67), Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, NIH (NIBIB) MIDRC grant under contracts 75N92020C00008 and 75N92020C00021, and NHLBI Award Number R01HL167811.